Nuclear Policy and Global Competition: Understanding the Impact of the United States-China Rivalry

Abstract

This study analyzes the nuclear rivalry between the United States and China and its impact on global security and strategic stability. Using a qualitative descriptive approach based on literature analysis, the research applies the Security Dilemma framework to explain how defensive policies can foster mutual distrust and intensify strategic competition. The findings reveal that although the two countries adopt different nuclear policies and non-proliferation approaches, both continue to enhance their deterrence capabilities in response to perceived security threats. China’s nuclear modernization and the United States’ focus on extended deterrence and advanced defense systems have reinforced reciprocal insecurity, increasing the risk of arms competition and strategic miscalculation. The study further shows that this rivalry undermines the effectiveness of the global non-proliferation regime by limiting transparency and complicating arms control efforts. Its consequences extend beyond bilateral relations, affecting regional and international security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, strengthening strategic dialogue, confidence-building measures, and policy transparency is essential to reducing tensions and preserving long-term global stability.

 Keywords— Nuclear rivalry, Security dilemma, United States and China relations, Non-proliferation, Global security.