Strategi Negosiasi Dalam Pemilihan Umum: Analisis Game Theory Terhadap Koalisi Politik Di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34010/agregasi.v14i1.14967Keywords:
negotiation strategy, political coalition, general election, game theory, multiparty systemAbstract
This study examines negotiation strategies in political coalition formation during Indonesian elections using Game Theory analysis. The complexity of Indonesia's multi-party system often results in unstable coalition governments, highlighting the importance of understanding inter-party negotiation dynamics. The research aims to identify strategic patterns in political negotiations and optimize coalition formation strategies. The methodology includes analysis of historical election data, interviews with political figures, and application of Game Theory models such as Nash Equilibrium and coalition bargaining. The results demonstrate that the Game Theory approach can predict and explain party behavior in coalition formation with high accuracy. These findings provide new insights for optimizing political strategies in Indonesia and contribute to the development of coalition formation theory in multi-party systems.
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References
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Berenschot, W. (2019). Informal democratization: brokers, access to public services and democratic accountability in Indonesia and India. Democratization, 26(2), 208–224. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2018.1512590
Berenschot, W., Capri, W., & Dhian, D. (2021). A quiet revolution? Village head elections and the democratization of rural Indonesia. Critical Asian Studies, 53(1), 126–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2021.1871852
Chandra, T. (2015). Impacts of Indonesia’s 2014 Presidential Election towards Stock Priceso Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(7). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v10n7p172
Civai, C., & Hawes, D. R. (2016). Game theory in neuroeconomics. Neuroeconomics,.
Fadli, Y. (2018). Islam, Perempuan dan Politik: Argumentasi Keterlibatan Perempuan dalam Politik di Indonesia Pasca Reformasi. Journal of Government and Civil Society, 1(1), 41. https://doi.org/10.31000/jgcs.v1i1.267
Fossati, D., Aspinall, E., Muhtadi, B., & Warburton, E. (2020). Ideological representation in clientelistic democracies: The Indonesian case. Electoral Studies, 63, 102111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102111
Gates, S., & Humes, B. D. (2010). Games, information, and politics: Applying game theoretic models to political science. Games, Information, and Politics: Applying Game Theoretic Models to Political Science, 1–182.
Hamudy, M. I. A., & Rifki, M. S. (2019). Strengthening the Multi-Party Presidential Government in Indonesia. Politik Indonesia: Indonesian Political Science Review, 4(2), 208–232. https://doi.org/10.15294/ipsr.v4i2.18447
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Harish, S. P., & Toha, R. (2019). A new typology of electoral violence: insights from Indonesia. Terrorism and Political Violence, 31(4), 687–711. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2016.1277208
Houben, S. (2017). Game Theory in Economics and Beyond. CFA Digest, 47(3). https://doi.org/10.2469/dig.v47.n3.4
Houser, D., & McCabe, K. (2013). Experimental Economics and Experimental Game Theory. In Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain: Second Edition. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416008-8.00002-4
Isaliani, T. P., & Firdaus, S. U. (2020). Konsep Koalisi Partai Politik Dalam Sistem Presidensial Indonesia. Res Publica, 4(2), 221–232.
Jadidah, F. (2020). Perubahan Konstitusi Dalam Transisi Orde Baru Menuju Reformasi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Mandala Education, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.36312/jime.v6i1.1120
Kaffah, F., Hasanuddin, H., & Marta, A. (2023). DINAMIKA PEMBENTUKAN KOALISI PARTAI POLITIK PADA PILKADA. Jurnal Kebijakan Publik, 14(4), 499. https://doi.org/10.31258/jkp.v14i4.8367
Karni, E., & Safra, Z. (2000). An extension of a theorem of von Neumann and Morgenstern with an application to social choice theory. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 34(3), 315–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4068(00)00047-1
Kim, K. H. (1983). Game theory for the social sciences. In Mathematical Social Sciences (Vol. 4, Issue 2). NYU press. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4896(83)90111-7
Leonard, R. (2011). Von Neumann, Morgenstern, and the creation of game theory: From chess to social science, 1900-1960. In Von Neumann, Morgenstern, and the Creation of Game Theory: From Chess to Social Science, 1900-1960. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511778278
Lubis, F. H., Nasution, F. A., & Harahap, R. H. (2024). The Commodification of Religious Rituals: Representations of Political Actors in Indonesian Elections. Pharos Journal of Theology, 105(2), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.46222/pharosjot.105.214
Mietzner, M. (2023). Presidents, Coalitions, and Indonesia. In The Coalitions Presidents Make (pp. 1–30). Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501772641.003.0001
Muggy, L., & Heier Stamm, J. L. (2014). Game theory applications in humanitarian operations: a review. Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, 4(1), 4–23. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHLSCM-07-2013-0026
Mujani, S., & Liddle, R. W. (2015). Indonesia’s Democratic Performance: A Popular Assessment. 16(2),. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 210-226.
Munck, G. L. (2001). Game Theory and Comparative Politics: New Perspectives and Old Concerns. In World Politics (Vol. 53, Issue 2). https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2001.0005
Niou, E. M. S., & Ordeshook, P. C. (2015). Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory. In Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315735153
Romli, L. (2018). Koalisi dan Konflik Internal Partai Politik pada Era Reformasi. Jurnal Politica Dinamika Masalah Politik Dalam Negeri Dan Hubungan Internasional, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.22212/jp.v8i2.1138
Rosyidi, I., Umar, M. H., Suvirat, K., & Rumicovic, A. (2022). Law, Money Politics, and Public Preferences in Choosing Regional Head Candidates in Ternate City, Indonesia. Varia Justicia, 18(3), 191–210. https://doi.org/10.31603/variajusticia.v18i3.7979
Scharpf, F. W. (2018). Games real actors play: Actor-centered institutionalism in policy research. Games Real Actors Play: Actor-Centered Institutionalism in Policy Research, 1–318. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429500275
Shepsle, K. A. (2012). Models of multiparty electoral competition. In Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203714966
Sumadinata, R. W. (2016). Dinamika Koalisi Partai-Partai Politik Di Indonesia Menjelang Dan Setelah Pemilihan Presiden Tahun 2014. Jurnal Wacana Politik, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.24198/jwp.v1i2.11060
Syafhendry, Prianto, A. L., & Yuslaini, N. (2023). Political Party Preferences on Local Election in Indonesia: How Does Rational Choice Institutionalism Work in Candidate Selection? Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(3), 74–97. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2393063h
Taufiqurrohman, M. M. (2020). Koalisi Partai Politik Dan Implikasinya Terhadap Sistem Presidensial Multipartai Di Indonesia. Kertha Semaya : Journal Ilmu Hukum, 9(1), 131. https://doi.org/10.24843/ks.2020.v09.i01.p12
Tomsa, D. (2010). Indonesian politics in 2010: The perils of stagnation. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 46(3), 309–328. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2010.522501
Tomsa, D. (2018). Parties and party politics in the post-reformasi era. Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Indonesia, 96–105. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315628837
von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (2007). Theory of games and economic behavior (60th anniversary commemorative edition). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition), 9781400829460, 1–741. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829460
Yanti, M., Malinda, F., & Tamsyah, I. (2023). Why does female voters prefer vote buying in local head elections? Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik, 14(1), 107–122. https://doi.org/10.14710/politika.14.1.2023.107-122
Zagare, F. C. (2014). A game-theoretic history of the cuban missile crisis. Economies, 2(1), 20–44. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies2010020
Aminah, S., Apriani, T., Pranasari, M. A., Indarti, D. M., & Herlina, M. (2020). The High Political Costs in Local Head Election (Case Study in Indonesia). European Journal of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, 7(11), 2020. https://www.kpk.go.id/id/,
Axelrod, R. (2015). Structure of decision: The cognitive maps of political elites. In Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. https://doi.org/10.2307/2616237
Berenschot, W. (2019). Informal democratization: brokers, access to public services and democratic accountability in Indonesia and India. Democratization, 26(2), 208–224. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2018.1512590
Berenschot, W., Capri, W., & Dhian, D. (2021). A quiet revolution? Village head elections and the democratization of rural Indonesia. Critical Asian Studies, 53(1), 126–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2021.1871852
Chandra, T. (2015). Impacts of Indonesia’s 2014 Presidential Election towards Stock Priceso Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(7). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v10n7p172
Civai, C., & Hawes, D. R. (2016). Game theory in neuroeconomics. Neuroeconomics,.
Fadli, Y. (2018). Islam, Perempuan dan Politik: Argumentasi Keterlibatan Perempuan dalam Politik di Indonesia Pasca Reformasi. Journal of Government and Civil Society, 1(1), 41. https://doi.org/10.31000/jgcs.v1i1.267
Fossati, D., Aspinall, E., Muhtadi, B., & Warburton, E. (2020). Ideological representation in clientelistic democracies: The Indonesian case. Electoral Studies, 63, 102111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102111
Gates, S., & Humes, B. D. (2010). Games, information, and politics: Applying game theoretic models to political science. Games, Information, and Politics: Applying Game Theoretic Models to Political Science, 1–182.
Hamudy, M. I. A., & Rifki, M. S. (2019). Strengthening the Multi-Party Presidential Government in Indonesia. Politik Indonesia: Indonesian Political Science Review, 4(2), 208–232. https://doi.org/10.15294/ipsr.v4i2.18447
Haris, S. (2021). General elections under the new order. In Elections in Indonesia: The New Order and Beyond. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315028446-2
Harish, S. P., & Toha, R. (2019). A new typology of electoral violence: insights from Indonesia. Terrorism and Political Violence, 31(4), 687–711. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2016.1277208
Houben, S. (2017). Game Theory in Economics and Beyond. CFA Digest, 47(3). https://doi.org/10.2469/dig.v47.n3.4
Houser, D., & McCabe, K. (2013). Experimental Economics and Experimental Game Theory. In Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain: Second Edition. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416008-8.00002-4
Isaliani, T. P., & Firdaus, S. U. (2020). Konsep Koalisi Partai Politik Dalam Sistem Presidensial Indonesia. Res Publica, 4(2), 221–232.
Jadidah, F. (2020). Perubahan Konstitusi Dalam Transisi Orde Baru Menuju Reformasi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Mandala Education, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.36312/jime.v6i1.1120
Kaffah, F., Hasanuddin, H., & Marta, A. (2023). DINAMIKA PEMBENTUKAN KOALISI PARTAI POLITIK PADA PILKADA. Jurnal Kebijakan Publik, 14(4), 499. https://doi.org/10.31258/jkp.v14i4.8367
Karni, E., & Safra, Z. (2000). An extension of a theorem of von Neumann and Morgenstern with an application to social choice theory. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 34(3), 315–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4068(00)00047-1
Kim, K. H. (1983). Game theory for the social sciences. In Mathematical Social Sciences (Vol. 4, Issue 2). NYU press. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4896(83)90111-7
Leonard, R. (2011). Von Neumann, Morgenstern, and the creation of game theory: From chess to social science, 1900-1960. In Von Neumann, Morgenstern, and the Creation of Game Theory: From Chess to Social Science, 1900-1960. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511778278
Lubis, F. H., Nasution, F. A., & Harahap, R. H. (2024). The Commodification of Religious Rituals: Representations of Political Actors in Indonesian Elections. Pharos Journal of Theology, 105(2), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.46222/pharosjot.105.214
Mietzner, M. (2023). Presidents, Coalitions, and Indonesia. In The Coalitions Presidents Make (pp. 1–30). Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501772641.003.0001
Muggy, L., & Heier Stamm, J. L. (2014). Game theory applications in humanitarian operations: a review. Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, 4(1), 4–23. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHLSCM-07-2013-0026
Mujani, S., & Liddle, R. W. (2015). Indonesia’s Democratic Performance: A Popular Assessment. 16(2),. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 210-226.
Munck, G. L. (2001). Game Theory and Comparative Politics: New Perspectives and Old Concerns. In World Politics (Vol. 53, Issue 2). https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2001.0005
Niou, E. M. S., & Ordeshook, P. C. (2015). Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory. In Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315735153
Romli, L. (2018). Koalisi dan Konflik Internal Partai Politik pada Era Reformasi. Jurnal Politica Dinamika Masalah Politik Dalam Negeri Dan Hubungan Internasional, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.22212/jp.v8i2.1138
Rosyidi, I., Umar, M. H., Suvirat, K., & Rumicovic, A. (2022). Law, Money Politics, and Public Preferences in Choosing Regional Head Candidates in Ternate City, Indonesia. Varia Justicia, 18(3), 191–210. https://doi.org/10.31603/variajusticia.v18i3.7979
Scharpf, F. W. (2018). Games real actors play: Actor-centered institutionalism in policy research. Games Real Actors Play: Actor-Centered Institutionalism in Policy Research, 1–318. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429500275
Shepsle, K. A. (2012). Models of multiparty electoral competition. In Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203714966
Sumadinata, R. W. (2016). Dinamika Koalisi Partai-Partai Politik Di Indonesia Menjelang Dan Setelah Pemilihan Presiden Tahun 2014. Jurnal Wacana Politik, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.24198/jwp.v1i2.11060
Syafhendry, Prianto, A. L., & Yuslaini, N. (2023). Political Party Preferences on Local Election in Indonesia: How Does Rational Choice Institutionalism Work in Candidate Selection? Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(3), 74–97. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2393063h
Taufiqurrohman, M. M. (2020). Koalisi Partai Politik Dan Implikasinya Terhadap Sistem Presidensial Multipartai Di Indonesia. Kertha Semaya : Journal Ilmu Hukum, 9(1), 131. https://doi.org/10.24843/ks.2020.v09.i01.p12
Tomsa, D. (2010). Indonesian politics in 2010: The perils of stagnation. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 46(3), 309–328. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2010.522501
Tomsa, D. (2018). Parties and party politics in the post-reformasi era. Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Indonesia, 96–105. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315628837
von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (2007). Theory of games and economic behavior (60th anniversary commemorative edition). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition), 9781400829460, 1–741. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829460
Yanti, M., Malinda, F., & Tamsyah, I. (2023). Why does female voters prefer vote buying in local head elections? Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik, 14(1), 107–122. https://doi.org/10.14710/politika.14.1.2023.107-122
Zagare, F. C. (2014). A game-theoretic history of the cuban missile crisis. Economies, 2(1), 20–44. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies2010020
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2026-05-02
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Strategi Negosiasi Dalam Pemilihan Umum: Analisis Game Theory Terhadap Koalisi Politik Di Indonesia. (2026). Jurnal Agregasi : Aksi Reformasi Government Dalam Demokrasi, 14(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.34010/agregasi.v14i1.14967
